It was just one year ago that media pundits were asking if there was anything, literally anything, that could slow the NFL’s enormous ratings. Player-conduct scandals, replacement refs, concussions? Football fans acknowledged the storm clouds that always seem to be rolling in and then sat down comfortably on the couch for another fall Sunday year after year.

“Is there a ceiling on NFL ratings?” asked Sports Illustrated’s foremost media columnist Richard Deistch in a column. “I don’t think so in the short term.”

Well, here we are.

NFL ratings dropped an average of 8 percent in the regular season, with ESPN reporting the average game was watched by 1.5 million fewer people in 2016 compared to 2015.

While you could fill a gridiron sideline with pundits who have opinions on what accounts for the decrease, it seems most likely to be the result of a confluence of factors, with the presidential election leading the charge and knocking off everything else in its path.

“First and foremost clearly was the election,” says Deitsch, who says an increase in cable news viewership among men 18-49 likely took a bite out of NFL watching. “The election really sucked up a lot of oxygen when it came to NFL ratings.”

“We knew that we were facing some pretty heavy headwinds in terms of interest in the election,” says NFL VP of Communications Alex Riethmiller. “We knew after the election we would see a rebound but we knew it probably wouldn’t be enough to put us into positive territory year over year.”

Other factors include a lack of star-caliber players early on in the season (J.J. Watt’s injury, Peyton Manning’s retirement, Tom Brady’s Deflate-Gate suspension) and too many national broadcast windows airing non-competitive games (anyone remember that early December Colts/Jets Monday Night Football classic?).

But with ratings coming back after the election (post November 8, games were down just 1 percent from last year) and big market teams such as Dallas, New England and the Giants back in the playoffs, executives are bullish that playoff ratings will be strong.

If there’s a clunker in the first round, it’ll likely be the opening game of the weekend (“Raiders/Texans, that’s not gonna set any records,” says the droll Deitsch). Raiders fans who’ve waited 13 years for a playoff game get their patience rewarded with Connor Cook becoming the first quarterback in the Super Bowl-era to make his first NFL start in the playoffs. Texans fans can’t be feeling much more confident with $72 million dollar punching bag Brock Osweiler getting the start behind center.

The Worldwide Leader is covering the game similar to its Monday Night Football games with a few new wrinkles. NFL insider Adam Schefter will be joining the telecast as the Raiders sideline reporter, complementing Lisa Salters who will patrol the Texans side. On the technical side, the production team is adding two robotic goalpost cameras and a second opposite high endzone camera.

CBS gets the second game Saturday with Lions/Seahawks. Last year’s Steelers/Bengals game (the one with the insane ending) was watched by 31.2 million people on CBS, up from 28.3 million the year prior.

The Sunday doubleheader begins with a wounded Dolphins team taking on Pittsburgh at Heinz Field. Dolphins backup quarterback Matt Moore will get the start in place of the injured Ryan Tannehill. Last year’s first Sunday game on NBC posted the biggest viewership increase over the year prior with 35.3 million watching the Seahawks 10-9 victory over the Vikings.

Then there’s the clear marquee event of Wild Card weekend: Giants/Packers at Lambeau Field, where twice Eli Manning has led the G-Men to victories en route to Super Bowl championships. Last year’s Fox Wild Card game on Sunday night earned just under 39 million people. It was the only game of the opening weekend to post decreased viewership numbers from the year before, when more than 42 million watched the Cowboys vs. the Lions.

Dallas moves the needle more than arguably any other franchise in American sports. Bloomberg reports the Cowboys averaged 23.7 million viewers in the second half of the year. They appeared in four straight primetime games and drew the most viewers for an NFL regular season game since 1995 with their Thanksgiving game against Washington (35.7 million).

“Executives are always routing for length in series…and the biggest market teams and the biggest television draw,” Deitsch says. “If Dallas is in the Super Bowl, it’s a guaranteed can’t miss.”

“We don’t choose one franchise over the other, but there’s no question that that’s one of the franchises that has a big national following,” Riethmiller says. “You just have to look at the numbers to know that they resonate with fans across the country when they play on TV.”

That’s about as close as you’ll get to any sports executive admitting they want a certain team to go deep in the playoffs. But after the ratings dip they experienced this season and the prospect of a whopper Cowboys/Patriots Super Bowl in play, can you really blame them?

[Image courtesy of USA Today]

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