Primetime TV has long been bought and told over two time periods: the spring upfronts and fourth-quarter scatter. In the former, TV time is bought in gross ratings points before anyone knows how next fall’s schedule will perform. In the latter, advertisers pick up time at more premium prices but generally know exactly what they are getting.

All of those ads are placed in primetime TV programs that hit a wide swath of viewers.

With so much TV viewing going to on-demand or time-shifted viewing, all of that is set to change.

“Senior executives at both TV networks and some of the industry’s biggest ad-buying firms see a time looming when primetime TV is no longer viewed as TV’s most desirable real estate. Instead, these executives say, a new flow of consumer data and a dizzying array of video-viewing behaviors will prompt advertisers to carve out ad plans that put their pitches in front of very specific groups of people: first-time car buyers, for example, or longtime orange-soda drinkers, or expectant mothers. Chasing those targets, rather than viewers of big-ticket shows like “The Voice” and “Scandal,” could well transform primetime into a cultural artifact like Rubik’s Cube or Donkey Kong – something that was certainly fun while it lasted, but is no longer of the moment,” writes Variety’s Brian Steinberg.

Working toward the benefit of this year’s upfront ad-sellers is the fact that the economy is good: oil prices are low, stock prices are high and unemployment is stable. Working against it is that every year ratings for live primetime TV fall a little more. This year has been no different: “For the first nine weeks of 2015, total live-plus-same-day ratings were down 10.7% across broadcast and cable, according to Cowen & Co, analyst Doug Creutz, while viewership by people in the advertiser-coveted 18-49 audience fell 13.3%,” reports Variety.

Likewise, advertising rates are falling, although in the past ad rates have tended to go up as ratings point became scarcer — a phenomenon that makes more sense economically than intuitively.

And digital is finally taking its piece of the pie, writes independent media analyst Michael Nathanson, in a research note.

“Money is shifting out of TV budgets towards online video, search, mobile and display,” he wrote. “It’s now a foregone conclusion that the U.S. national TV market has decelerated sequentially and precipitously over the past year. With 2014 now behind us, the question turns to how quickly digital will take share from TV and, more immediately, how will the weak second half of 2014 impact the development of the 2015 upfront.”

Read More: Variety

Brief Take: It’s just a matter of time before the way TV advertising is bought and sold changes, much like TV itself. The smart money already has started adapting.

Image courtesy of Variety

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