Research firms Magna Global and ZenithOptimedia say that by next year, digital advertising will exceed TV advertising—a first for the industry when not in a recession.
According to Magna Global, TV ad revenue declined once more this year as digital ads continued to rise. Magna Global’s study predicts that global digital revenue will pass TV by 2017, and by 2016 in the U.S.
ZenithOptimedia agrees for the most part, releasing a study that says TV’s ad revenue peaked in 2012 and will be beaten out by digital revenue by 2018 (a year later than Magna Global’s forecast). The research company sees a slight growth in ad revenue overall in the states next year, but an especially good 2016 for Asia.
Declining ratings, subscribers leaving and falling stocks are seeing advertisers leave broadcast and cable networks in favor of digital outlets, according to Magna Global. However, the year ahead has some excellent advertising opportunities (presidential election, the Olympic games and the UEFA Football championship) so ad rates might not fall too quickly for some.
The research firms add that this year saw a stark increase in national TV ad sales, largely due to the ad campaigns of daily fantasy sites, namely FanDuel and DraftKings, who flooded the airwaves with commercials throughout 2015. Both companies are expected to pull many of those ads and focus less attention on advertising in general in the coming year with those sites’ legal and PR troubles.
The dire news, however, comes at the same time that CBS is predicting a bright new year in ad sales. CBS’ Chief Research Officer David Poltrack sees big gains for 2016, expecting a 9.5 percent increase in broadcast ad sales in the coming year, he said at the UBS Global Media and Communications Conference in New York on Monday.
Poltrack presented his revenue report, adding “I realize this is a very bullish, contrarian forecast,” as PricewaterhouseCoopers backed up his claim, saying that national networks like CBS may see a 5- to 6-percent increase in ad rates next year.
Poltrack’s reasoning for a promising new year falls on marketers who are refocusing efforts in TV and millennials, who he says are entering into a phase of life when they’re able to spend more.
Read more at The Hollywood Reporter and Ad Age.
Brief Take: Reports on TV ad revenue seem to disagree, but marketers increasingly seem to be turning to digital ads, which is something of which TV networks need to take note and prepare to combat.
[Image courtesy of DraftKings]
Tags: