For Carmi Zlotnik, Starz’ president of programming, the key to trying to determine what will be a hit show comes down to a balance of magic and science.

“The magic has always been the quantum physics of creativity,” he said Thursday at the Drama Summit West 2018 conference in Los Angeles. “Under certain conditions, creativity is known to occur. But if you try to watch it too closely, you will disable it from happening.”

Meanwhile, he called Starz’ May 1 launch of its app “a revelation” in terms of the daily reports that provide more information than ever before.

“This is the first time we’ve been able to get some data, almost real-time data, in terms of subscribers, so we’re able to learn from that,” he said.

In the past, Starz has used ratings to measure the success of its series, but because so many views come in from non-linear platforms the initial numbers often don’t reflect reality.

“They’re not only not an accurate predictor of a performance of a show, they’re not an accurate predictor of success for us as a platform, because our business does not run on ratings, it runs on subscribership,” he said.

For instance, during season four of Power, there was a significant behavior shift to on-demand, and Starz didn’t realize how big its audience actually was until around episode five or six, after compiling in-house data that went beyond ratings.

But even then, “the success of a show doesn’t just relate to a numerical performance,” he said. “There’s quantifiable things, and there’s unquantifiable things: brand, perception, being able to cut through the clutter with something that’s unique and builds a relationship with an audience base.”

So with that in mind, he turns to a “swim lane” development model that compartmentalizes Starz’ target audience into genres—represented by series such as as Ash vs. Evil Dead and Counterpart; women—represented by Outlander; and African Americans—represented by Power.

And Starz recently added two more lanes: Latinx—represented by new drama Vida; and millenials—represented by Sweetbitter. “Each of those audiences bleed from one to another so nothing is absolutely exclusive,” Zlotnik said.

Another key to creating a hit show? You wait.

“With a new IP, you don’t have that fan base, so you have to be prepared to patient and [let it] build,” he said. “We saw that in the case of Power; episode by episode, season by season, until it became the second largest show on TV.”

That’s the strategy behind Vida and Sweetbitter.

“Those are the kind of shows that once they hit their fan base, you have time of the social interaction got the world out, and those show are going to grow an audience.”

They both of which premiered May 6 and were packaged together from a marketing perspective.

Sweetbitter focuses on Tess (Ella Purnell), a 22-year-old who arrives in New York City, lands a job at one of the best restaurants in the city, and is quickly intoxicated by the chaotic, adrenalized world behind-the-scenes, tasting expensive wine, exploring dive bars, and learning who she can trust.

Vida is a half-hour drama series focusing on two Mexican-American sisters, Emma (Mishel Prada) and Lyn (Melissa Barrera), from Los Angeles’ East Side who couldn’t be more different or distanced from each other. Circumstances force them to return to their old neighborhood, where they are confronted by the past and surprising truth about their mother’s identity.

They both came down the pipeline around the same time, and Starz felt like they would fit together in an odd but interesting way.

“Here’s two different versions of a female journey, and there was a value in putting them together,” he said. “It shows how different that journey can be.”

When trying to decide on the next great series, it often comes down to looking at the media landscape and trying to think what isn’t there, what story isn’t being told. The serendipity of timing is also always part of the equation, as is tapping into emotions.

“Empathy is what allows us to have a mental model of how other people feel,” he said. “Couple that with an understanding of the marketplace, and connect that with stories that move us emotionally, and may move others emotionally—enough so to drive a subscription business.

And to move someone, the show has to be authentic, so Starz layers its team with people who have knowledge and experience around the stories being told.

With that in mind, “I think there are two ways to achieve a hit for us,” Zlotnik said.

He sees success as the moment a showrunner or director turns to him and says “that’s the show I had in mind, thank you for enabling us to make it.”

He also sees it when Starz is able to take a pre-existing brand, such as Outlander or American Gods and create a series fans dream of watching.

“Let’s have respect for them and try to make that version of the show,” he said. “And when we do that we’re able to convert those fans to subscribers. It makes it successful for the business.”

Tags: drama summit west 2018


  Save as PDF